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WebWord Weblog Posting Posting Date: August 18, 2002 Why Doc Searls Doesn't Sell Any Books (Jakob Nielsen, 6-Aug-2000) -- "In the long term, Amazon is going to lose its current special status and will have to compete on an equal footing with other sites. Reputation managers will eliminate the marketing advantage Amazon enjoys from its brand. Web wallets will eliminate the usability advantage Amazon enjoys from one-click shopping." (Comments: It has been two years but this has not happened. Reputation managers have not eliminated Amazon's advantage. Also, web wallets have not eliminated Amazon's usability advantage in one-click shopping. I'm telling you this because Nielsen really likes to make people think that he is correct about everything. He frequently points to his own predictions to show that turn out to be true. However, he never points out that some of his predictions are just plain wrong. He made the predictions I point to above over two years ago. He was wrong and I am just here as a little thorn in his side to demonstrate that his predictions are not always spot on the mark. I don't think he is evil and I don't think he is doing anything wrong. Instead, I am simply trying to establish some parity in the ratio of good to bad predictions he has made. Oh, by the way, he just published a reasonable article: Let Users Control Font Size. Of course, he did manage to find a way to link one of his Nielsen Norman Reports. He has sold out; good for him!)
Reader Comments...
Just when you thought you were getting away from him, Uncle Jakob™ makes a triumphant return to Webword. There's no stopping him. Maybe Mac should start a "Uncle Jakob™ predictions that haven't come true" page. Posted by: MadMan on August 18, 2002 11:30 PM
MadMan, I second the motion! There is definitely a need for such a page. Posted by: John S. Rhodes on August 19, 2002 12:23 AM
So Filbert has found font-size controls. Woo hoo. He's only a couple years late in giving us this advice. We needed it back before Z-man began convincing people that forced-size fonts are the way to go. Filbert is too often behind the times. He's not leading the way any more. Posted by: Jack on August 19, 2002 12:40 AM
I'm waiting for Uncle Jakob™ to start talking about Deep Postings, Recursive Blogs, Longitudinal Usability, Perceived Information Architecture, and other ideas found at WebWord. I'll laugh my butt off. Posted by: John S. Rhodes on August 19, 2002 12:44 AM
For a perspective on the "web wallets" you may enjoy: Federated identities create new security risks (David Strom)
MadMan, I shall take up your proposal and create a "Nostrodamus of the Usability World" page. I think we should include examples of usability type predictions from Uncle Filbert and anyone else who comes to mind. I will gratefully accept suggestions and will aim to get a page up in the next two weeks. Posted by: Mac on August 19, 2002 09:02 AM
Mac, I no longer wish to Damn Your Eyes! ;-) User Payments: Predictions for 2001 Revisited -- "Advertising-supported websites will soon be a thing of the past. As I predicted a year ago, sites began charging for services in 2001. Although most sites are still not handling payments right, two innovative European projects hold much hope for 2002." (Comments: Umm, no. Plenty of sites still rely on advertising. They are not a thing of the past. Not yet!) (OK, something funny here...check out this quote from this page: "Acknowledging that Web advertising is not a sufficient business model, several famous websites have announced that they will start charging subscription fees later in 1998. Unfortunately, subscriptions are not a good idea on the Web." Seems to directly contradict the quote above. He has "hope" that subscriptions will work. Oh boy, an excellent contradiction!) The Reputation Manager -- "Initially, I expect reputation managers to become embedded in proxy servers for large corporations and offered as a value-added service by larger Internet Service Providers." (Comments: Um, good idea I guess. But, reputation managers are not here yet, certainly not at the proxy server level! Maybe, just maybe, reputation managers are happening. You decide. But serious, do you think they will cause a "renaissance for good customer service"? Really?) Something else to chew on...at least Uncle Jakob™ sometimes reviews his predictions. He doesn't always ignore what he has said in the past. OK, that's all I have time for right now. Thanks again Mac!!
I'm also waiting for Uncle Jakob™ to start talking about netchecking. Seems like something he would like to take credit for... Posted by: John S. Rhodes on August 19, 2002 09:42 AM
Another "famous predictions" page should be for figures arbitrarily spun by these "research" agencies like Forrestor, Gartner, etc. Somebody should hold them accountable for the stupid numbers they keep tossing out. Y2K meltdown, anyone? Posted by: MadMan on August 19, 2002 11:04 AM
MadMan, don't even joke about Y2K. On January 1, my Pac-Man digital watch reset all my high scores. I can't achieve those scores again. The buttons are long since broken. And even if they worked, the arthritis in my fingers would prevent me from reliving the former glory of my teenage years. Y2K rocked my ass, so stuff it. Posted by: Jack - Pinball Wizard on August 19, 2002 12:16 PM
I think sometimes JN wants to play the seer.... looking into the future and making predictions - and that is brave of him. What he needs to do, though, for credibility’s sake is revisit his 'big calls' and try and explain why things have or have not worked. This way you can continue to make the 'big calls' but show that you are not always right and you are big enough to analyze why.
This way you can continue to make the 'big calls' but show that you are not always right and you are big enough to analyze why. Go JB! I find all this Nielsen-bashing to be highly hypocritical and self-serving. Each round of bashing is a clear demonstration of usability specialists living up to their reputations of being prone to criticism and little else. JB has it right. If you cannot analyze your own work, especially mistakes, you don't have much credibility. Posted by: Ron Zeno on August 19, 2002 01:41 PM
I disagree, Ron. This is about the opportunity to bash. Understandably, people in the usability community feel they have to keep their mouth shut about anyone else in the business, lest anyone take offense or interpret it as a weakness in the practice itself. But, there comes a time when the "bigger than Jesus" thing gets tired, and he deserves a good kick up the ass for it. No one is saying he's an asshole - they're just pointing out that he is just a man, despite the "guru" title and disproportionate amount of attention. Posted by: Lydia on August 19, 2002 02:04 PM
Ron That is what I think JN is starting to suffer from now. It always happens within an industry- your peers nail you first and then the wider community. I think for JN sake, he can make the 'big calls' but then for the entire profession go back and critically analyze what he has prophesized.
I bash my own work all of the time. I also repeatedly open myself up to criticism in the community. I also show that I am ignorant and need help. Because of this, I feel that it is fair to openly discuss what others are doing. If you don't like what I say, tell me why and we'll work things out. It you like what I say, explain that too. The point is to learn and expand our knowledge, to push the boundaries. It is also to reflect on what works and what does not work. Some of what we say, or even most of what we say, is trivial. But, there are nuggets of wisdom. Some of the best comments come forth when we discuss what other people do right and do wrong. It just so happens that our friend Jakob Nielsen is a lightning rod and attracts many comments. Go Jakob! Ultimately, we all benefit. Jakob gets even more publicity, we discuss the topics at hand, and we all mature. Usability matures. That's how it works, in my opinion. Posted by: John S. Rhodes on August 19, 2002 02:30 PM
The truth is that we all tell ourselves, "that bastard Uncle Jakob™ is making $20000 a day for work that I could do just as well, if not better. It's a fucked world." And when someone charging $20000 per day is so obviously flawed just like most of us, well, we feel angry, upset, and like to sock it to him. Now tell me I'm wrong. Posted by: MadMan on August 19, 2002 04:03 PM
MadMan is he making 20k a day...or is that what he charges? Posted by: JB on August 19, 2002 04:12 PM
we discuss the topics at hand, and we all mature Where is the discussion? Where is the maturity?
Are you talking about the person, or the information presented by that person? Posted by: Ron Zeno on August 19, 2002 04:31 PM
JB, "making" refers to what he charges. Nevertheless, I'm sure you'll agree that it's a very profitable thing. Ron: I try to refrain from pointless posts, and to give concrete arguments. I can't speak for others. someone charging $20000 per day is so obviously flawed Are you talking about the person, or the information presented by that person? I suppose that on a philosophical level, we're all flawed in some way. I was, however, referring to Nielsen's conclusions, postulates, and the occasional nonsensical opinion column. I clearly have no way of knowing what kind of person Nielsen is in real life. Posted by: MadMan on August 19, 2002 04:59 PM
I clearly have no way of knowing what kind of person Nielsen is in real life. Maybe that's what we need. Filbert should hold a usability dinner. Only $3000 a plate. $5000 with autographed photo and dancing afterward. It will be a Dinner World Tour, coming to your town soon. Posted by: Jack - God's Confidant on August 19, 2002 06:50 PM
I am the Guru, all bow down before me:
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